(Photo credit/The Athletic)

Late Saturday night, the news broke that Matthew Stafford was headed to the LA Rams. Cool, I thought at first. Stafford will have a new plethora of weapons to throw to and Sean McVay to construct an offense fitted for him. Offensively, this is the best situation he has been since, at least since Calvin Johnson was still playing. Then, I saw the package that Matthew Stafford went for. Holy crap. He went to LA in exchange for 2 first round picks (2022 & 2023), a 2021 third round pick, and Jared Goff. Calling that a haul feels like an understatement. Matthew Stafford is a really good quarterback and I like his potential with the Rams team around him. But the package that the Rams gave up forces them to go all in on the next few years. I expected him to go for one (1) first round pick. Although Stafford’s talent is undeniable, he is about to turn 33 and is probably out of the elite class of quarterbacks.

Stafford has played with elite receivers such as Calvin Johnson and Kenny Golladay, but maybe Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, an emerging Van Jefferson, Tyler Higbee, and a versatile group of running backs are the best skill position group that he has quarterbacked for. Perhaps Stafford’s best football is now ahead of him in this new situation, but it feels like the Rams are tying themselves to an above average aging QB as if he was a 25 year old bonafide superstar.

Speaking of 25 year old superstar QBs potentially on the trade block, what in the hell is the kind of package that Deshaun Watson will go for after this trade? The precedent has been set and make no mistake, the Texans will use their new found leverage to get all that included in the Stafford package and more. That package is something that I expected Watson to go for. You would have to figure that the package now becomes substantially more. Again, Stafford is a good QB. However, Watson is an elite QB, more mobile, and 8 years younger.

Based on this precedent package, I have to rule my hometown Patriots out of the running for Watson. They simply don’t have the picks or the chips to offer if it takes more than the Stafford package to get Watson, which it will. Three teams that I will outline that I think can propose deals for Watson and not get hung up on by the Texans are: the New York Jets, the Miami Dolphins, and the Denver Broncos.

Using the Stafford trade as a template, you will see all of these offers look pretty similar. Let’s start with the Broncos. A package I could see them offering is the #9 overall pick this year, a 2022 first, a 2023 second, Drew Lock, and Von Miller. The draft capital is similar to the Stafford trade: 2 1sts and 2nd here as opposed to 2 1sts and a 3rd. However, the 9th overall pick locked in for this draft has significantly more value than the first round picks in the future that the Rams sent to the Lions, especially when you consider the Rams will most likely be a playoff team in the coming years with Stafford. An additional 1st and a 2nd in 2022 and 2023 become less valuable, but that’s all the Broncos have to give really as far as draft capital. Drew Lock has struggled at times, but nonetheless still holds value as a young QB who could develop and have success in a new system. Still on his rookie deal, he isn’t expensive to roster and would compete for the starting gig in camp. Von Miller only has 1 year left, but if it is true that JJ Watt wants out could be extended to fill that role in the defensive scheme. Or even better, if Watt can be kept now you have the best pass rushing duo in the NFL. Watson throwing to Cortalnd Sutton, Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler next year has loads of potential and combined with a decent running game and defense could make the Broncos a sleeper pick to make some noise next year.

For the Dolphins, I could see them one-upping the Broncos with this package: #3 overall, #18 overall, 2022 3rd round pick, and Tua Tagovailoa. As I said earlier, picks already locked in to the top 20 of this years draft hold a lot more value than picks unknown in the future, so a package with the same structure as the Stafford trade is actually worth a lot more, especially if the Texans like this class. Tua coming back in the package is a QB that they would be willing to commit to as the starter, allowing them to possibly take Oregon’s Penei Sewell at 3 to help protect Tua and bolster their offensive line that has struggled. Although the Dolphins fell just short of the playoffs this year, upgrading Tua for Watson almost surely gets them in as the rest of that roster is loaded with talent and Brian Flores is building a great coaching staff and culture there.

The Jets package would be almost identical to the Dolphins and the Texans would pick the package based on what they wanted to do in the draft. The Jets could make an offer of: #2 overall, #23 overall, a 2022 2nd round pick, and Sam Darnold. The idea here is the same for the Texans. Darnold is at least worth taking a look at in training camp and #2 guarantees you can take whoever you want in the draft who isn’t Trevor Lawrence. This is probably the worst trade for Watson’s perspective as the Jets have the least talented roster of the three teams I discussed here. And because they are the Jets and although they are in a prime location for the spotlight, NYC of course, they are the Jets and will almost assuredly mess up Watson’s career. I really love Deshaun Watson and as a Patriots fan I really hate the Jets. Please powers that be don’t let him go there. Either it ruins a great player’s career or Deshaun is so good that the Jets become good. I don’t know what’s worse.

One thing is becoming clear: Deshaun Watson has probably played his last snap as a Houston Texan. Where he goes, you’re guess is as good as mine. But NFL fans should be ready to buckle up for an offseason like no other with QB movement around the league. The Matt Stafford trade kicked things off and there is only more to come.