Brady is gone and the world is ending, and no the correlation does not imply causation. But regardless, “life will go on” says the NFL as they released their full 17 week season amid coronavirus uncertainty, and I say life will go on for the Patriots amid Stidham/Hoyer uncertainty. Since the Patriots home and road opponents were announced, many in national and local media have speculated the Patriots tank in hopes of drafting Trevor Lawerence or another college prospect due to the perceived lack of talent on this Patriots roster and the first-place schedule they have been playing for two decades. I get that Tom Brady is gone and will be replaced by unproven young quarterback Jarrett Stidham, and not, fuck me (us), Brian Hoyer, (who I still think could drag this roster to 9-7). But outside of Brady, the only other significant losses are Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins. Those guys are good but we are not talking all-time greats here. We’ve already had great success without Collins and Van Noy has become great as a result of the Patriots defensive scheme, not the other way around. Who has benefited more from playing with each other: Van Noy and Collins or the Patriots returning secondary and returning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore? The secondary has been the strength of this team for some time, even with Tom Brady on the roster. So let’s not pretend there has been some great departure of talent. Let us also not forget that the Patriots offense was not a juggernaut with Tom Brady last year. I get a lot of that could be contributed to the running game or lack thereof. However if Brady came back it likely would have been at the expense of second team all pro guard Joe Thuney, one of the few talented players on a roster that is supposedly devoid of it. The Patriots went 12-4 last year and very well could have ended at 13-3. Am I to believe Van Noy and Brady are worth more than three games? A cliff is not coming because this team lost a 43-year-old QB. This roster is not the Ravens or the Chiefs,  but it’s definitely not the Jaguars or Bengals and they are not coached like them either. The GOAT is gone but The Hood lives on. 

The difficulty of the Patriots 2020 opponents is no secret. With away games at Seattle, Kansas City and Houston and playing host to the Ravens and the reigning NFC Champs in the 49ers, it will be hardest in the NFL by opponent winning percentage. The order of games adds a nice perspective to which games will suck more and which games will suck less. Like Weeks 2 and 4 when Stidham will go toe to toe with Russ Wilson and Pat Mahomes in their own house. No one could expect the Pats to take either of these games however there is a silver lining in getting those games out of the way early. The road is tough but there is a path to nine wins or more for this Pats team. 

I’ll be breaking down the season in three parts: before the Week 6 bye, the bye through Week 11 and Week 11 through the remainder of the season. While I think it would be ridiculous to expect every win and loss to be exact, I do not think it’s ridiculous to think 9-7 is floor no matter how they get there. When making these predictions I tried my best to give the win to the obviously superior opponent despite this not always playing out in reality. I did this because there will naturally be games the team should have won and lost and games they should have lost and won- As is the case on any given Sunday 

The Pats play five teams before their Week 6  bye: MIA, @SEA, LVR, @KC and DEN. It is obvious the first two games that stick out are the ones I mentioned previously will suck more because of where they fall on the schedule category, @SEA and @KC. I have the Pats going 3-2 here while I definitely concede the possibility of them falling to 2-3. Losing early to Denver, Miami or the Raiders would not not surprise me in the least. But that does not mean they can’t string together late season wins to finish above .500. Belichick coached teams have always shown the ability to build throughout the season. Without Brady we will get a better test for the accuracy of that statement but for now I believe The Hoodie has earned that benefit. Final verdict is 3-2.

After the Week 6 bye the Patriots play the 49ers, @Buf, @NYJ (MNF), BAL and @HOU. For the Pats to come away with even two wins here would be a huge win. I have them going just 1-4 over the stretch with losses vs the 49ers, Bills, Ravens and Texans. When I said before I would do my best to give the win to the obviously better team I think this stretch sticks out. Home vs the Jets is really the only game here to feel great about. Pats were fortunate to draw the 49ers after the bye which gives this game some upset potential but you would have to be drunk on the kool aid to consider this game anywhere near a lock. 3-3, the Patriots go on the road to Buffalo and New York vs the Jets. If they can’t clean up on the Jets next season then the path to 9-7 just got a lot harder. After two road divisional games the Pats finish the five game stretch with two of the AFC’s best, home vs BAL and away @HOU. Like their games vs the Chiefs and Seahawks any win here would definitely be gravy.  How Patriots fare against these teams will be the difference between fighting for the wild card or the division. Strong performances in these two games could give this unproven team the confidence it needs for the stretch run. Final verdict 1-4, 4-6 on the season 

Circumstances of the schedule finally play in the Pats favor down the stretch. In their final six games they play only one team from the 2019 playoffs, the Bills. They are home vs the Cardinals before playing two games in LA. They end the season with divisional matchups @MIA and home vs the Bills and Jets. 4-6 the Pats will need to make up ground and with favorable matchups I think they do. The narrative has long been that Belichick coached football teams save their best football for after Thanksgiving. With Brady gone that will finally be put to the test. I think the Pats drop one game here. Where that is I am not completely sure. Best bets are week 15 in Miami or one of the games in LA. Even in good years the Patriots have a tough time winning in Miami. I know 5-1 is really optimistic but 1-4 in the previous section was equally pessimistic so we’ll call it even. Final verdict 5-1, 9-7 on the Season.

Going full circle 9-7 should be their floor. While some of the vets like Hightower, McCourty and Chung are all on the back nine there is plenty left in the tank. No they won’t contend for a superbowl but with veterans who know how to win and the greatest coach of all time they have no excuse to not compete in almost every game. And depending on the progression of their younger offensive skill players (Harry, Stidham, Michel) I think they could outperform this prediction. I am really excited for this season. As a 24 year old Pats fan this is my first without Tom Brady on it. And I know it’s scary because teams like the Browns and Jaguars have spent decades looking for a quarterback but those teams are not run by Kraft and Belichick. Watching the Patriots the last couple seasons have felt like watching reruns of your favorite TV show, fun but you already knew where it was going. At least in that aspect this season will be better. It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. But at minimum it should come with 9 wins.